We are starting to see a shift in the soy complex from focusing on this year’s production in the United States to more interest in the upcoming crops in South America.

At the present time, estimates of the U.S. soybean crop range from 4.1 billion to 4.3 billion bushels. Brazil just harvested a 5.7 billion bushel soybean crop, but a much larger crop for next year is anticipated. The USDA is currently predicting a 2023-24 Brazil soybean crop of 6 billion bushels, but private groups estimate it larger, between 6.1 billion to 6.3 billion bushels.

Even if the United States produces a smaller soybean crop this year, the window for buyers to cover needs before the next Brazilian crop is shrinking, and so will demand for U.S. offers in the global market.

When it comes to South American production, we need to look at ...