One factor that was persistent all last calendar year and will be again in 2022 is high market volatility.
Last year, this volatility was instigated by production issues in South America and the demand it shifted to other countries, including the United States. This demand caused U.S. ending stocks forecasts to drop to minimal levels, especially on soybeans. As the year progressed, these fears subsided, and by the end, we were actually seeing concern about stocks building to near burdensome levels.
The global market needs a large soybean supply, though, and it wouldn't take much to put the complex back into a rationing position.
Another factor that is keeping volatility high is the flow of managed money into commodities. Buyers have been surfacing on breaks and selling on rallies, which isn't uncommon.
What is different between this year and others in history is the volume of money we are seeing shift back and forth and the size of resulting price...