The USDA published U.S. cash receipts projections for 2025 and 2026 in the February 2026 release. The latest 2025 projections indicated that cash receipts from all agricultural commodities would increase 3.0% to $529.0 billion from the previous year (see Figure 1). In contrast, projected total cash receipts in 2026 would fall 2.7% to $514.74 billion from 2025.

U.S. crop cash receipts would increase to $240.82 billion in 2026, up $2.77 billion (1.2%) from the latest projection for 2025 ($238.05 billion). In contrast, animal cash receipts would decline to $273.92 billion in 2026, down by $17.02 billion (5.8%), from the value projected for 2025 ($290.93 billion). As indicated by USDA, most of the decline in animal product sales is due to the expected fall in the sale values of milk and chicken eggs, reflecting lower prices. Animal cash receipts would account for 53.2% of total U.S. cash receipts with the rest coming from crop receipts.

Figure 1. U.S. Cash Receipts

U.S. Corn, Soybeans, Hogs, and Cattle & Calves Cash Receipts Projections for 2026

U.S. corn cash receipts are projected up 3.3% to $63.67 billion in 2026 compared with the projection for 2025 ($61.62 billion). This projection is based on expected larger quantities sold. U.S. soybean cash receipts, projected at $44.52 billion in 2026, are expected to remain about the same as the previous year’s projection ($44.51 billion). U.S. hog cash receipts would fall 0.7% ($0.2 billion) to $29.31 billion year-over-year, while cattle & calves’ sales would expand by 4.1% to $133.10 billion in 2026 compared with the projected sales for 2025 ($127.89 billion). Cattle prices are expected to continue an upward trend in 2026. In the latest state data published by USDA (2024 calendar year), Iowa cash receipts from corn and soybean made up 18% and 15% of U.S. cash receipts for these two commodities, respectively. In addition, Iowa hog and cattle & calves cash receipts accounted for 33% and 6% of U.S. corresponding sales of these livestock commodities.

Figure 2. U.S. Cash Receipts from Selected and All Commodities (Billion USD)

The USDA’s projection for 2026 regarding federal government direct farm program payments indicates an increase of $13.80 billion to $44.3 billion due to higher expected payments from Farm Bill programs that trigger payments when commodity prices decline. Due to changes to the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs for the 2025 crop year allowed by the OBBBA Public Law 119-21, a large expansion of $12.80 billion is expected for these two programs. Most of the increase is attributed to the PLC program. In 2026, USDA projects the ARC program would increase by $0.05 billion to $1.92 billion, while the PLC program would grow by $12.75 billion to $13.00 billion. Dairy Margin Coverage payments are forecast at $122.9 million. USDA expects that supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance payments will stay high in 2026 at $23.88 billion.

Overall, USDA forecasts US net cash farm income at $158.5 billion, up 3.0% ($4.6 billion) in 2026 from the projection for 2025 ($153.9 billion). Using a broad measure of profits, net farm income, USDA projects that farm profits would decline 0.7% to $153.4 billion in 2026 from the projection for 2025 ($154.5 billion) (see Figure 3). In real terms, inflation-adjusted 2026 dollars, net cash receipts would grow 1.1% to $1.7 billion in 2026, while net farm income would fall by $4.1 billion (2.6%) from the previous year.

 

Figure 3. U.S. Net Cash Farm Income and Net Farm Income