Don’t be surprised if farmers in the United States make some changes to their fertilizer operations due to the high cost of nitrogen, panelists at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 2023 Ag Outlook Forum said last week.

Laura Cross, Josh Linville and Hope Michelson provided analysis on the global fertilizer trade and implications for production costs, consumer prices and food security.

Cross is director of market intelligence service at the International Fertilizer Association; Linville is vice president of fertilizer with StoneX; and Michelson is an associate professor of development economics at the University of Illinois.

Cross gave a high-level global perspective that shows fertilizer availability growing stronger and prices in short-term decline, but still at high enough levels to affect farm profit margins in the United...