The trade is trying to determine what the long term effects of the war in Ukraine may have on commodity trade. One of the most notable is the short grain supply it will cause in some regions, but this may be remedied sooner than some of the other impacts.
One of the long-term concerns is the change it may cause in commodity flow. Several buyers have been forced to look elsewhere for commodity needs, and once these changes take place, it can be hard to cause them to revert. As a result, some of the business the Black Sea has lost may not come back. That said, other buyers will eventually show up for supplies when they are available.
Another shift we have seen in recent weeks is the lowering and, in some cases, total removal of import tariffs. Buyers have removed these to make it easier to bring in needed commodity supplies as well as to help lower costs for their domestic consumers.