Now that the calendar has turned to March, we will start to see a shift in market attitude. This is a time of the marketing year where interest starts to divide between old-crop demand and new-crop production. As it does, we see a change in which fundamentals can and do impact price discovery.
Early planting is starting to get under way across some regions of the United States. This will finally start to give us a clearer indication of what the United States may see for planted acres. Many of the decisions on U.S. plantings have been locked in since early winter when farmers across the Corn Belt start locking in inputs.
Prior to this, fall tillage and fertilizer applications determined acres in many regions as well. There have been estimates that indicate the United States will see corn and wheat acres similar to last year while soybean plantings will increase by 6 million.
While this increase is possible, it isn't a given. The price spread between corn and soybeans hasn't ...