We are starting to see a division take place in how analysts look at today’s commodity market. When making market predictions and forming outlooks, we are seeing a split between the pre-COVID years and how the market has acted since then.
The biggest difference is how the market looks at commodity inventories. Prior to the global COVID pandemic, buyers were willing to go hand-to-mouth for needs. This wasn't just in the United States but around the world. COVID caused major disruptions to export movement and regional shortages of several commodities. As a result, buyers are now more willing to establish food security reserves, mainly on grains. The most notable of these is wheat for milling purposes. Not only have importers built their reserves, but exporters have restricted their sales to maintain adequate supplies.
While the grains have benefitted from this stockpiling, the livestock industry hasn't seen as much support. Global importers aren't as willing to build reserves of beef and pork as they are on staple grains. This doesn't mean that buyers haven't upped...
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