In a few weeks, we will hit the two-year mark from Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine. The Russians have made significant efforts to hinder Ukraine’s ability to export goods, namely ag products, as exports have become the country’s main source of income to fund the war. Exporters in Ukraine had done an adequate job at maneuvering these attacks for several months, but new disruptions in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthi militant group have caused additional logistic snarls. 

In the first year of the war, Ukraine was able to utilize a humanitarian corridor brokered by the United Nations (UN) and Turkey, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, to export some 33 million tons of grain and other foodstuffs. Without any seasonal or war-severity related adjustments, this comes out to roughly 2.75 million tons per...