window closing on u.s. exports

The trade is starting to focus more attention on the cash markets for U.S. crops. Many buyers across the interior U.S. market have paid premiums to encourage movement for processing. We saw movement increase at the end of last year, which isn't surprising. The uncertainty is if this will continue in 2023. Given the large amount of deferred pay contracts across the market, we may not see elevated movement, and incentives will increase.

On the global side, all interest right now is on the start of the Brazilian harvest. Light soybean harvest activity is already under way in Brazil, but this will now start to increase in volume.

As a result, more soybeans will be available for importers at a sharp discount to the United States. When added to the soybeans that were sold by Argentina through its...