Final yield estimates for the 2023 corn and soybean crops released last week came in sharply higher than most analysts had anticipated. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) pegged the final corn yield at 177.3 bushels per acre, a national record. The soybean yield for 2023 was seen at 50.6 bushels per acre, the fourth largest on record. 

The USDA in its initial May forecast actually pegged yields even higher, with corn starting at 181.5 bushels per acre, and soybeans starting at 52 bushels per acre. These initial forecasts are made based on yield trends going back to the 1980s and assume “normal” growing season weather, whatever that is these days. 

So there is a bit of context involved when looking at those. By August, corn yield estimates had dropped to 175.1 bushels per acre, and beans had ...