Now that the 2023-24 planting season is underway in Brazil, we are starting to see production estimates released. 

The Brazilian firm CONAB is estimating Brazil’s soybean crop for this year at 162.4 million metric tons compared to last year’s 154.6 million metric tons. An acreage increase of 2.7% is credited for the larger crop. CONAB is predicting a Brazilian corn crop of 119.8 million metric tons this year, well below last year’s crop of 131.9 million metric tons. CONAB believes corn plantings will decline 5%, causing lower production. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is currently forecasting Brazilian crops of 163 million metric tons for soybeans and 129 million metric tons for corn. 

Given the expanded window and early start to Brazil’s planting season, these numbers may increase, especially for corn. 

Basis under pressure