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U.S. Farm Income: Latest 2016 Projection (08/30/2016)

U.S. Farm Income: Latest 2016 Projection (08/30/2016)

U.S. net cash income (gross cash income minus cash expenses) and U.S. net farm income (total gross income minus total expenses) in the 2016 calendar year are forecast to decline year over in response to low commodity prices. According to USDA-ERS’s Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data published in August 2016, compared with the previous year, U.S. net cash income is expected to fall 13.3% to $94.1 billion, whereas U.S. net farm income is forecast to decline 11.5% to $71.5 billion.  Net cash income includes only cash receipts and expenses, whereas net farm income, in addition to include net cash income, includes non-money income (the value of home consumption of farm products and the imputed rental value of operator and hired labor dwellings), the value of inventory adjustment, and capital replacement during the current year.

Cash receipts from all commodities are forecast to decline by $25.7 billion (6.8%) to $353.4 billion in 2016 from the estimated value last year ($379.2 billion). Overall cash receipts for animals and products and crops are expected to fall 9.8% ($18.7 billion) and 3.7% ($7.1 billion), respectively.  The expected level of cash receipts for animal and products ($171.1 billion), if realized, will be the lowest since 2012 (see Table below).  Cash receipts for cattle/calves, hogs, and broilers are expected to decline 11.1%, 6.5%, and 3.7%, respectively, from the previous year.

The 2016 cash receipt forecast for crops ($182.3 billion) is expected to be lowest since calendar year 2010 ($180.4 billion).  Corn and soybean cash receipts are forecast to represent 24.6% and 19.5% of total cash receipts from crops. Cash receipts are expected to decline 6.0% for corn and 0.4% for soybean from the estimated value during 2015 (see Table).

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