Exports to Mexico have been frequently discussed in recent weeks and months since the election of 45th President of the United States. President Donald Trump has regularly been quoted deriding the quality of NAFTA, additionally, statistics are often referenced about trade decreasing and the words of President Trump being the main cause of such trade fluctuations. To more fully understand what has been occurring in the international markets of the world we look to the most recent published data.
There have been both increases and decreases in commodity exports to Mexico since the beginning of 2017. However, many more factors play into the changes in trade including: international prices, grain storage, demand for commodities, supply of commodities, along with policy changes in many countries. Over simplification of complex markets cannot define the causation of export fluctuations. A portion of shifting markets can be attributed to the rhetoric of world leaders however, many factors interact to create the final changes to the market.
Between the months of January 2017 and April 2017 exports in: Ethanol have decreased 35%, Corn increased 35%, DDGS decreased 7%, Soybeans increased 57%, Soybean Meal decreased 38%, Turkey increased 3%, Pork decreased 19%, and Beef decreased 8%.
2017 – Main Commodity Exports to Mexico
Exports in the last two years during the same January to April time period have not shown exactly the same trend but have shown various decreases and increases. Although, for example, soybean meal exports to Mexico increased from 2015 and 2016, during the same months in 2017 they decreased. Soybeans are at a three year high in 2017 for percent change from January to April. The afore mentioned factors, among others, affect these variations in trade likely more than the statements of world leaders alone.
2016 – Main Commodity Exports to Mexico
2015 – Main Commodity Exports to Mexico
Preston Lyman is a Research Analyst with Decision Innovation Solutions (DIS). DIS is an Iowa-Based economic research firm which provides regular farm economics research and analysis to the Iowa Farm Bureau staff and members.