Price Movements

Iowa fertilizer prices began rising in 2021 and peaked during the summer of 2022 (Figure 1). Price peaks for each fertilizer were close to double their respective 2018-2020 average prices. Since the peak, prices have generally been trending down, though they still have not reached 2018-2020 levels.

Figure 1. Henry Hub Natural Gas and Iowa Fertilizer Prices

There are several reasons fertilizer prices increased over the past few years. First supply chain challenges were evident. Hurricane Ida occurred in Sept 2021 and the Russian Ukraine invasion occurred in Feb 2022. Both events disrupted supply chains and created market uncertainty, effectively lowering total supplies and increasing market prices. Some uncertainty still exists around the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but these uncertainties are smaller than they were immediately following the...