It’s impossible to predict whether China will carry through with its threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on soybean imports from the United States.

But if the tariff threat becomes a reality, it would likely have significant and lasting impacts on U.S. farmers, on crop choices in other parts of the world and on the soybean processing industry, according to a new analysis by economists at RaboReasearch, a division of Rabobank.

“It would really have consequences all over the globe,” said Sterling Liddell, a vice president for food and agribusiness research at Rabobank. “If the duties are enforced, you would see a disruption of soybean trade here, and really everywhere in the...