Last week's grain stocks report showed U.S. grain and soybean inventory as of Sept. 1 was below trade estimates and well under year ago figures. 

The United States had 1.995 billion bushels of corn in inventory on Sept. 1 this year compared to 2.22 billion bushels a year ago. Soybean reserves totaled 523 million bushels this year compared to 909 million bushels a year ago. The U.S. wheat inventory was also down from 2.35 billion bushels last year to 2.16 billion bushels this year. 

All wheat production in the United States was reported at 1.826 billion bushels, just under last year’s 1.838 billion bushels crop. 

Now that this data has been released, the trade will revert to global weather as a major factor in daily price discovery. 

The most interest on this topic is in Brazil, where farmers are waiting for the rainy season to get under way before ramping up their soybean plantings. Current models indicate rains will start to move through...