We are starting to see a shift in global commodity trade. This is especially the case for corn and soybeans, as the global stocks-to-use are forecast to increase considerably in the 2023-24 marketing year.

The world corn supply is forecast to increase 15.5 million metric tons from this year to next. The global soybean supply is projected to increase by 20.5 million metric tons.

These larger crops reduce any urgency from importers to cover future needs, especially at today’s values. Buyers also are showing restraint in booking wheat, even though the global wheat supply is forecast to shrink 2 million metric tons from this year to next.

The question now is when will these buyers step in and start covering their import needs. It is quite likely the U.S. won't see a jump in export demand until late summer when South American exports...