Now that the U.S. planting season is under way, we may start to get a better indication of actual acres. In the USDA's March planting intentions report, U.S. acres were projected at 91 million for corn, 89.5 million for soybeans and 47.4 million for wheat. 

These compare to last year’s plantings of 93.4 million corn acres, 87.2 million soybean acres and 46.7 million wheat acres. High input costs for corn are the primary reason for reduced plantings, but so is a shift in fringe areas of the Corn Belt to crops that are better suited for those growing conditions, mainly wheat in the Plains. Record projected returns for cotton have also cut into acres in those production areas. 

While these planted acres have received considerable market attention, there is more interest on what we may see for harvested acres. Every year, the United States loses at least some acres during the growing season, typically from adverse weather. The question is how...