Cash Strategist 3-9-22
The trade is starting to show more interest in this coming year’s U.S. grain and soybean production possibilities. While last year’s corn and soybean carryout levels increased from the year before, the stocks-to-use on both crops remain very tight and just above where rationing would be needed. Wheat ending stocks continue to decline, and rationing is already warranted for that crop.
For the 2021-22 marketing year, U.S. farmers produced a corn crop of 15.11 billion bushels, according to the latest USDA information. While this was record production, it is just over our projected demand at 14.84 billion bushels. This will leave the U.S. with a stocks-to-use ratio of 10.4%, which is just above rationing that starts at 8%.
One corn number that's heavily debated is the export forecast, at 2.425 billion bushels. If South American production declines as much as some analysts predict, this will likely elevate U.S. exports as other sources for corn are already...
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