We are starting to see elevated positioning in the market ahead of the end of the calendar year. Historically, this would increase volatility in futures as positions were squared and profits were taken, or losses were cut and positions were balanced.
In recent years, this has become less of a factor, especially in the cash market as more and more farmers work on a fiscal calendar rather than a yearly calendar.
Year-end positioning can still be a factor, however. This is because the end of December is also the end of the quarter. We have seen a considerable volume of fund activity in the market in recent months, and to see them shore these positions up wouldn't come as a surprise.
For the farmers that will be using the calendar year end for tax purposes, we tend to see elevated movement over the next two weeks.
Normally, this would cause higher sales of soybeans to even out cash receipts as farmers can sell less inventory and ...