Attention shifts to South America
Now that the initial reaction to the U.S. election is out of the way, the trade is starting to focus on traditional fundamentals for price discovery.
The immediate one will be what we are seeing for U.S. crop sizes as harvest is winding down in much of the country. Not only can this impact futures but basis as well, as we now have a better idea how many bushels are being held and how many are being sold. It wouldn't be surprising to see basis pressure start to lift in areas where harvest is complete and movement is slowing.
One factor that has changed considerably in recent weeks is the planting pace of the Brazilian soybean crop.
Dry weather delayed the start of the soybean planting season in Brazil, which immediately caused a panic in the soy complex as it was thought this would bring the United States additional export business. The slow early planting pace suggested Brazil's crop would be harvested later,...