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2015 U.S. Net Farm Income Projection (November 9, 2015)

2015 U.S. Net Farm Income Projection (November 9, 2015)

According to the most recent (August 2015) USDA/ERS Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data, U.S. net farm income in 2015 is projected to decline 36.0% to $58.3 billion compared the previous year ($91.1 billion).  If realized, this will be the largest drop in net farm income since 1983 (both in nominal and real terms).

Based on declining crop prices, U.S. crop cash receipts are forecast to drop 6.2% to $195.0 billion compared to the previous year ($207.9 billion). U.S. Corn cash receipts are expected to decrease 13.1% to $46.6 billion year-over-year ($53.7 billion), whereas U.S. soybean cash receipts are expected to drop 8.3% to $37.8 billion relative to 2014 ($41.3 billion).

U.S. meat animal (cattle and calves and hogs) cash receipts are forecast to fall by 7.2% ($7.8 billion). The decline is mainly due to lower hog receipts, falling from $26.4 billion in 2014 to $19.2 billion in 2015, representing a 27% reduction in 2015 compared to 2014. USDA’s October 2015 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report indicates that the national base, live equivalent prices ($/hundredweight) of barrows & gilts in 2015 are expected to decline 33.2% compared to 2014, from an average of $76.0/cwt in 2014 to $50.8/cwt in 2015.

USDA/ERS cash receipt state data are available up to 2014. We estimated 2015 Iowa’s cash receipts for corn, soybeans, and hogs, assuming USDA's projected national level percent reduction for the corresponding commodities for 2015 relative to 2014. Based on this assumption, Figure 1 indicates that 2015 Iowa’s corn cash receipts would decrease by $1.1 billion (from $8.4 billion in 2014 to $7.3 billion in 2015), whereas soybean cash receipts would decline by $0.4 billion (from $5.3 billion in 2014 to $4.8 billion in 2015).  2015 Iowa’s hog cash receipts would decline to $6.7 billion compared to $9.2 billion in 2014.

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