The USDA released the November report of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE, November 9, 2016), forecasting higher corn production, increased food, seed and industrial (FSI) use, including corn for ethanol use, larger ending stocks, and slightly higher prices during the 2016/17 marketing year compared with the October 2016 WASDE.
Due to increased expected yield, now at record 175.3 bushels per acre or 1.9 more bushels per acre than last month’s projection, the production forecast for the 2016/17 marketing year now stands at 15,226 million bushels, 169 million bushels up from last month’s projection and a record high. If realized, production would be up 1,625 million bushels from the 2015/16 marketing year estimate. Ending stocks were up 83 million bushels to 2,403 million bushels from the October forecast and 665 million bushels above from last year’s estimate. The projected price, now at $3.30/bushel, is up $0.05/bushel from last month’s projection but down $0.31/bushel from last year’s estimate.
The new report also included an upward revision to the non-ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use for the 2014/15 and 2015/16 based on updated usage estimates. Given that stocks are known, reductions were made in feed and residual use during those years.
Meanwhile 2016/17 FSI use was up 85 million bushels compared with last month forecast, with 60 million bushels increase for non-ethanol FSI use and 25 million bushels for corn for ethanol use. The latest NASS Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report published by USDA on November 1, 2016, indicates corn consumed in September 2016 for dry mill ethanol production declined 6% to 388.4 million bushels compared with last month’s estimate (411.2 million bushels), but increased 2% from last year’s estimate (382.2 million bushels). With lower corn use for dry mill ethanol production during the month of September 2016, corn distillers oil (CDO) production declined 5% to 134,269 tons from last month’s estimate but was 16% ahead of the September 2016 production. Distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) was also down 5% to 1.964 million tons from August production but up 5% year-over-year. 2016/17 corn use for feed and residual remained the same as last month forecast at 5,650 million bushels.
To see the complete report, please click here.