The soybean market this year has been extremely volatile due to demand uncertainty and expectations for a record-large supply, says John Newton, chief economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation.

New-crop soybeans settled as high as $10.53 per bushel in the spring of 2018, and at that point in time, the market expectation was a near zero percent probability that the final settlement price would be below $8 per bushel.

As trade disputes accelerated, and favorable growing conditions became known, the probability for below $8...