South American Corn Crop Update

In the latest WASDE update, USDA lowered Brazilian corn production from 124 MMT to 122 MMT and dropped Argentina’s corn production for the 2023/24 marketing year from 55 MMT to 53 MMT. These numbers are still significantly higher than estimates from South American sources, but the gap between the sources narrowed a bit this week. Dr. Michael Condonnier’s current estimate of the Brazilian corn crop is 112 MMT. CONAB estimates the Brazilian crop at 111.6 MMT.  Everyone agrees that the 2023/24 Brazilian corn crop will be smaller than the 2022/23 crop, but the question still remains, “How much smaller?”

March through April rainfall in Mato Grosso is higher than last year, but still well below the levels of a couple years ago. The side-by-side...