September 2016 – Livestock Market Update
Market participants in the hog sector are eager to look at the Hogs and Pigs report due to be released on Sept. 30, 2016 after prices have fallen dramatically across the hog complex over the last 11 weeks. The Iowa-Minnesota carcass base price has slipped over $23 per cwt since July, while national weighted average carcass base prices have tumbled $18 per cwt. In conjunction with this dramatic drop, 40lb feeder pig prices have been moving aggressively lower since late May, losing about $38 per head. This is well beyond traditional seasonal price moves for feeder pigs. The five year average shows a decline around $15 per head over May through August/September. With the decrease in corn prices, we would usually expect to see an increase in feeder pig prices. Over the last several years the correlation between 40lb feeder pigs and corn prices has been -0.25.
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