Introduction

The USDA released its updated WASDE report on July 12, 2023. This was the first WASDE report following the USDA acreage and USDA grain stocks report at the end of June, both of which were surprises to the market. The June acreage report was by the larger shock, showing a large increase in corn acres and decrease in soybean acres.

The big questions ahead of the WASDE report were how the USDA would handle new crop use given shifts in acres and if the USDA would lower its corn yield estimate given the dry weather and large increase in expected acres. Normally the USDA waits until August or September to start adjusting yield estimates, but in years of especially poor weather conditions the USDA will lower its...