Introduction

The US beef cow herd has been shrinking since 2019. In January 2024, there were 87.2 million cattle in the US, the lowest inventory since the 1960’s.

Cow and heifer slaughter rates have not yet dropped to suggest producers have started to hold more breeding stock back, so expansion won’t be starting soon.

This begs the question: When will prices incentivize producers to keep cattle back? Right now, cash feeder prices over $2.50/lb. aren’t changing...