Plan on holding old crop you have on a basis contract well into 2017. The technical outlook presents a stronger case than the fundamental one.
We continue to like using a basis contract to satisfy cash flow needs and/or to avoid commercial storage. If you need to make a sale by harvest, use a rally to $3.40 on December futures. It may be late winter before the next good marketing opportunity presents itself.
For the next few weeks, harvest news will dominate the market, both yield and weather implications. Early yield reports have been good, but there is some variability. With only 9 percent of the crop harvested, it’s a little too soon to use them to gauge what this year’s final yield will be. Demand continues to be robust, with export shipments and sales remaining good. Current sales are just over 700 million bushels. They are on pace to reach the target and are nearly double last year at this time. The ethanol grind is taking its usual pre-harvest dip for maintenance. Grinding margins are very good.