Even though the trade was geared up to see the USDA project bigger crops than it had been using in its supply/demand forecasts, few expected record or near record yields.

The soybean yield, 51.6 bushels per acre, wasn’t quite a new record, but it may have been the most surprising. The yield estimate for Illinois, 64 bushels/acre, was a whopping 5 bushels higher than the prior record. Iowa’s 59 bushel/acre yield missed...