Ukraine’s political and economic turmoil, coupled with a wide-ranging drought, virtually guarantees that wheat and corn production will fall short of last year’s levels, market analyst Olivier Bouillet said last week.

“There are a lot of signs that the 2014 harvest will not equal the 2013 one,” said Bouillet, executive director of Agritel International, a Black Sea region risk management firm. “We are seeing a drop in acreage, (and) cash problems and difficulty...