Soybean Strategy - June 6, 2018
2017 crop: Soybean prices are made vulnerable by the flaring up of trade tensions with China, but futures are in the upper half of their one-year range and still offer an attractive opportunity for producers looking to wrap up old-crop sales.
2018 crop: November soybean futures traded not far from contract highs; 2018 crop sales should be advanced to at least the recommended 30 percent.
Fundamentals: Steel and aluminum tariffs promised by President Trump went into effect last week. Market participants are waiting to hear about what kind of retaliatory measures will be taken by top trading partners like Canada, Mexico, the European Union and Japan. A favorable resolution to ongoing trade disputes remains a possibility. Aside from trade war worries, weather is the predominant focus. Conditions shifted to allow corn plantings to catch up quickly after a slow start, so heavy weather-related switching to soybeans hasn’t been observed; emerging soybeans in the U.S. are in good condition, but the market is still working out a reallocation of trade flows after drought hit Argentina’s bean crop hard this season.
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