Soybean Strategy - Dec. 21, 2016

2016 crop: 

Leave orders to price 10 percent of your crop if January futures reach $10.90. That would boost sales to 70 percent. It will take problems with the South American crop to boost futures over $11.

2017 crop:

Even with the talk of expanded U.S. plantings, new-crop prices continue to hold recent gains. Even though our forecast isn’t particularly negative, pricing the first 10 percent of your new crop if November futures reach $10.60 is a prudent move. In fact, we wouldn’t tell someone no if they asked about pricing at current levels.

Fundamentals: 

The situation in Argentina has garnered a lot of attention recently. First, wetness stifled planting, and dry concerns are now elevating yield uncertainty. But the dryness did allow planting to get back on track, now standing at 67 percent complete. The mild La Nina-like conditions have elevated the concern for growing season dryness. Meanwhile, demand for U.S. soybeans continues to outpace expectations.