November Crop Production Report: USDA Cuts Corn Yield, Markets Rally.

Crop Production

USDA's November 10, 2026 Crop Production report forecasts the U.S. corn yield at 179.6 bushels per acre, down 1.6 bushels from the October forecast and 6.9 bushels below last year's record 186.5, for a crop of 15.89 billion bushels, down 0.9% from October and 6.3% from 2025. Soybeans are forecast at a record 4.57 billion bushels, 7.3% above last year, on 6.8% more harvested acres and a record 53.3 bu/ac yield, up 0.2 bushel from October. Both forecasts are based on conditions as of November 1, and this is USDA's last forecast before January's final estimates.

Corn

Corn production for grain is forecast at 15.89 billion bushels, down 140.5 million bushels (0.9%) from the October forecast and down 1,070.2 million bushels (6.3%) from 2025; USDA says that, if realized, it would still be the second-highest grain production on record. The yield cut accounts for all of the change: harvested area is unchanged from October at 88.5 million acres, 2.7% below last year. USDA made no revisions to the 2025 crop or to this year's harvested area this month.

USDA's Crop Comments put ninety-five percent of the corn crop mature by October 18, fifty-six percent rated good to excellent on October 25, and seventy-four percent harvested by November 1, three points behind the five-year average. USDA's reliability statement puts a 90% chance on the final corn production estimate landing within 2.3% of this forecast.

Figure 1. U.S. corn yield, 2011–2026 (November 1 forecast), bushels per acre. Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, November 2026.

Iowa's corn yield is forecast at 219 bu/ac, unchanged from October and up 9 bushels (4.3%) from 2025, one of seven states USDA lists at record-high yields. Iowa remains the top corn producer at 2,803 million bushels, 17.6% of the U.S. crop, up 41.7 million bushels (1.5%) from 2025 on 12.8 million harvested acres, 2.7% fewer than last year. By yield, Iowa ranks second among the published states, behind Washington.

Illinois led the national cut in bushels: the Illinois yield lost 8 bushels from October to 200 bu/ac, taking 87.6 million bushels (3.8%) off its crop, and is now 6.5% below 2025. Michigan was cut 10 bushels to 170, Indiana and Missouri 5 bushels each to 195 and 176, and Nebraska 4 bushels to 184. Minnesota moved the other way, up 9 bushels from October to a record 204 bu/ac, adding 74.7 million bushels; it is the only top-twelve state other than Iowa and Ohio with a yield above last year, at 1.5% higher. Against 2025, the deepest declines among the twelve largest producers are still on the Plains: North Dakota is down 18.4%, Kansas 14.5% and South Dakota 10.5%. No state among the twelve largest changed its production rank from October.

Table 1. Corn yield by state, bushels per acre, twelve largest producers: 2025 and USDA's October 1 and November 1 forecasts for 2026 (reports released October 9 and November 10). Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, November 2026.

Figure 2. Corn yield by state, change from USDA's October 1 forecast to its November 1 forecast, bushels per acre, twelve largest producers (October 1 and November 1 yields in parentheses). Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, November 2026.

Soybeans

Soybean production is forecast at a record 4.57 billion bushels, up 12.2 million bushels (0.3%) from October and up 312.7 million bushels (7.3%) from 2025. The yield, at a record 53.3 bu/ac, is up 0.2 bushel from October and 0.3 bushel above last year's final 53.0. Harvested area is unchanged at 85.9 million acres, 6.8% more than last year. USDA's November objective-yield survey found pod counts down from last year in six of the eleven major soybean states, Kansas most; eighty-eight percent of the crop was harvested by November 1, four points ahead of the five-year average.

Figure 3. U.S. soybean yield, 2011–2026 (November 1 forecast), bushels per acre. Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, November 2026.

Iowa's soybean yield was raised 2 bushels from October to a record 65.0 bu/ac, 1.5 bushels (2.4%) above last year's 63.5, and Iowa moves from a tie with Indiana for second to first among the states by yield. Production is forecast at 632.5 million bushels, up 19.5 million (3.2%) from October and 6.2% from 2025 on 9.7 million harvested acres, 3.7% more than last year. Iowa remains the second-largest soybean producer, with 13.8% of the U.S. crop.

Illinois, the largest producer, gave back the most bushels: its yield was cut 4 bushels from October to 64.0 bu/ac, removing 41.7 million bushels (5.9%), though it is still 2.4% above 2025. Minnesota gained 5 bushels to a record 54.0 and Nebraska 3 bushels to 62.0, while Arkansas and Kansas were each cut 3 bushels, to 56.0 and 30.0. Ohio holds at 62.0, 17.0% above last year. Kansas remains the outlier, 38.1% below 2025, with Missouri down 8.0% and Nebraska down 5.3% despite this month's increase.

Table 2. Soybean yield by state, bushels per acre, twelve largest producers: 2025 and USDA's October 1 and November 1 forecasts for 2026 (reports released October 9 and November 10). Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, November 2026.

Figure 4. Soybean yield by state, change from USDA's October 1 forecast to its November 1 forecast, bushels per acre, twelve largest producers (October 1 and November 1 yields in parentheses). Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, November 2026.

What it means

The desk's reading: the last forecast before January takes 140.5 million bushels off the corn supply, led by an 87.6-million-bushel cut in Illinois and partly offset by Minnesota, while soybeans hold a record crop with little change. For Iowa the November report is a good one on both crops: a record corn yield that held and a record soybean yield that was raised.

Market reaction

December 2026 corn futures settled at $4.49, up 9¾ cents from the November 9 settlement; January 2027 soybeans settled at $12.28, up 39¾ cents. (CBOT settlements per USDA AMS, Iowa Daily Cash Grain Bids, November 9 and November 10, 2026.)

Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, released November 10, 2026.