Introduction

The USDA released its updated WASDE report on May 12, 2025. The May report is highly anticipated as it is the first month that the USDA releases supply and demand estimates for the new crop year for the U.S. and the world. It should be noted that wheat-by-class projections for the 2025/26 crop year will not be published until the July WASDE report.

Table 1 shows U.S. ending stocks for all decreased for corn (-50 mb[1]), soybeans (-25 mb), and wheat (-5 mb) from April to May for the 2024/25 marketing year. These ending stocks were less than trade expectations, with corn having the largest disparity. For the 2024/25 marketing year, world corn ending stocks slightly decreased by 1.65 million metric tons (MMT) from April to May, while soybean and wheat ending stocks increased by 1.77 MMT and 5.13 MMT respectively. 

For the 2025/26 marketing year, U.S. corn ending stocks are projected to be 1,800 mb, falling well short of average trade expectations. U.S. soybean ending stocks are forecasted to be 295 mb, 67 mb less than the average that industry experts predicted. U.S. wheat ending stocks are 923 mb, exceeding expectations by 60 mb. World corn stocks are 277.84 MMT, falling 20 MMT short of expectations. World soybean ending stocks are 124.33 MMT, only 1.69 MMT less than expectations. World wheat ending stocks are 265.73 MMT, 4 MMT more than predicted. 

Table 1 shows some key report estimates along with trade analyst expectations. 

Table 1. May 2025 USDA WASDE vs Market Expectations

 













Initial Market Reaction

The immediate reaction to the USDA report saw May corn futures drop from $4.44 to $4.38 shortly after the WASDE report released. July corn futures fluctuated, going from $4.50 prior to the report, then increasing to $4.54 before falling as the day continues. September corn futures followed a similar trend, going from $4.30 prior to the report to $4.35 shortly afterwards and fluctuating throughout the rest of the day. December corn futures increased by 6 cents to $4.48 shortly after the WASDE released and closed 3 cents higher at $4.45 per bushel.

May soybean futures increased after the release of the WASDE report, going from $10.52 an hour before to $10.62 an hour afterwards. July soybean futures increased by 11 cents to $10.71 shortly after the report and closed at $10.70, up 18.25 cents for the day. August soybean futures increased by 7 cents to $10.62 after the WASDE released before briefly dipping to $10.61 and then quickly recovered and increased to $10.68. New crop, November 2025 soybean futures closed the day at $10.5675, up 26.25 cents for the day. May soybean meal futures steadily increased to $291.80/ton and July soybean meal futures increased by $4 to $298.30/ton after the report and closed at $298.30, up $4.20 per ton for the day. July soybean oil futures slightly increased immediately to 49.77 cents per pound before fluctuating throughout the day although closing up $1.29/cwt at $49.83.

July wheat futures initially increased by 4 cents per bushel to $5.21 before falling to $5.14 as the day progressed. September and December wheat futures both initially increased by 3 cents to $5.35 and $5.56 respectively but closed lower with December 2025 wheat closing at $5.5075, down 7.5 cents per bushel for the day.

Changes to Domestic Balance Sheets

For the 2024/25 marketing year, the only change is exports increasing by 100 mb to 2,600 mb, resulting in total use also increasing by 100 mb to 15,240 mb. For the 2025/26 marketing year, corn acreage planted and harvested are 95.3 million acres and 87.4 million acres, both 1.3 million acres more than estimated in the USDA Outlook released in February. Beginning stocks are 1,415 mb, a 125mb decrease from the USDA outlook, and US corn production is 15,820, exceeding the outlook by 235 mb. This results in total supply being 17,260 mb, 110 mb more than projected in the USDA outlook. Exports are 275 mb more than projected, resulting in the same differential for total use. Ending stocks are 165 mb less than estimated in the USDA outlook. 

Table 2. May 2025 WASDE Corn Balance Sheet

There were no changes in the 2024/25 soybean balance sheet. For the 2025/26 balance sheet, the USDA’s planted and harvested soybean acres are down half a million acres from the February outlook. Beginning stocks and production are both down 30 mb, leading to a 60 mb drop in total supply. Soybean crush is 15 mb higher than the outlook, resulting in total domestic also being up 15 mb. Exports are 50 mb lower than the outlook, which leads to total use being down 35 mb when accounting for the increase in total domestic. Projected ending stocks are 25 mb lower than they were in the USDA’s outlook. The average price per bushel of soybeans $10.25, 15 cents higher than the projected in the USDA’s outlook. 

Table 2. May 2025 WASDE Soybean Balance Sheet

[1] mb = million bushels