At this point in the year market anticipations for the size of harvest play a major role in forming price expectations for the upcoming marketing year. In the May 2016 Crop Market Update, Farm Bureau pointed to global supply concerns, accelerating exports and crop growing conditions as key variables driving the April and May grain and oilseed price rally. New crop corn, soybean and wheat prices traded near or above contract highs (for the year) in early June.
However, since mid-June crop growing conditions have improved, we’ve experienced “BRexit” and USDA shocked the market with the much anticipated June 30 Acreage Report. Two of these three events directly impact the size of the U.S. crop and contributed to an 18, a 5 and an 18 percent decline in new-crop corn, soybeans and September wheat prices (respectively).
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