2018 crop: It would be unusual for a year to go by without some weather concern and risk premium to develop in the market. The 40-week price cycle also has a long history of reliability. We stand ready to advise sales if prices move toward the upper end of the three-month range. Given the old-crop inventory, you should plan to have basis tied up on old-crop inventory by mid-June.
2019 crop: During this era of relatively low prices, December corn futures have been able to trade in the $4.15-$4.50 range every growing season. Plan to initiate sales if prices move into that range.
Fundamentals: The persistence of weak market action is causing hedge funds to continue to add even more to their short position, although the pace of increase has moderated. Still, they are at record short levels. Any shift in market structure could bring a quick initial surge, but one that could be capped by producer sales. South American crops look good. Argentina is over 20% harvested. But for now, U.S. weather and planting may be the most important market factor.
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