Introduction

The USDA released its updated WASDE report on August 12th, 2026. The August WASDE report is the first of the current crop year to use farmer surveys, making it somewhat reflective of real-world conditions and farmers’ expectations. Objective yield observations will be incorporated into the September crop report and September WASDE estimates.

(New) 2026/27 Marketing Year

U.S. corn ending stocks decreased by 137 million bushels (mb) to 1,653 mb, falling 92 mb under trade expectations. Soybean ending stocks rose by 10 mb to 320 mb and also exceeded expectations by 14 mb. Wheat ending stocks dropped 5 mb to 717 mb, aligning with trade expectations. U.S. corn production increased by 13 mb, exceeding industry expectations by 47 mb, while yields dropped by 2.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) and underperformed expectations by 2 bu/ac. U.S. soybean production rose by 44 mb, outperforming expectations by 41 mb, but yield decreased slightly by 0.3 bu/ac. Despite beating expectations, total wheat production decreased by 5 mb to 1,531 mb. Hard red wheat fell by 8 mb and white winter wheat rose by 9 mb.

World corn ending stocks fell nearly 0.6 million metric tons (MMT) to 274.66 MT, 1.36 MMT more than expected. World soybean stocks increased marginally to 124.21 MMT, falling just 0.19 MMT short of trade expectations. World wheat ending stocks rose 0.41 MMT to 273.25 MMT, beating expectations by 1.55 MMT.

2025/26 Marketing Year

U.S. corn ending stocks dropped 75 mb to 1945 mb, falling 52 mb short of trade expectations. Soybean ending stocks decreased 5 mb to 325 mb and slightly exceeded expectations, while wheat ending stocks remained at 920 mb.  

World corn ending stocks gained 0.16  MMT to 298.83 MMT, world soybean ending stocks dipped 0.21 MMT to 125.12 MMT, and world wheat ending stocks increased  by 1.18 MMT to 280.22 MMT.

South American Markets

For the 2025/26 marketing year, Brazil’s corn and soybean production estimates increased by 2 MMT to 140.00 MMT and 0.50 MMT to 180.50 MMT respectively. Argentina’s corn production estimates also increased by 2 MMT to 63.00 MMT, but its soybean production dropped 0.50 MMT to 49.50 MMT. There were no changes to production estimates for the 2026/27 marketing year.

Table 1 shows key report estimates for both U.S. and world production.

Table 1. August 2026 USDA vs. Market Expectations

Initial Market Reaction

September corn futures rose 11 cents to $4.55 within 30 minutes of it being released. December corn futures followed the same trend, rising 10 cents to $4.78 within 30 minutes of the WASDE being released.

August soybean futures fell 9 cents to $11.59 within an hour of the report being released. September soybean futures initially fell 3 cents to $11.56 before fluctuating and rising throughout the afternoon. November soybean futures fluctuated initially, quickly losing 2 cents to $11.75 then surging to $11.78 before falling to $11.73, all within a half hour of the report’s release.

September soybean meal futures fell by $0.8/ton to $306.3/ton, within 30 minutes. October soybean meal futures fluctuated initially, gaining $1.2/ton to $309.6/ton within 15 minutes before falling to $307.9/ton shortly thereafter.

August soybean oil futures increased from 68.35 cents per pound to 68.88 cents per pound. September soybean oil futures rose 0.30 cents per pound to 68.69 cents per pound, and October soybean oil futures initially increased to 68.45 cents per pound. These futures continued increasing through the afternoon.

September wheat futures fell from $6.52 before the WASDE released to $6.47 immediately after. Wheat futures fluctuated throughout the day peaking at $6.54. December wheat futures followed the same trend, initially dropping 5 cents to $6.64, before peaking at $6.71 midafternoon.

Changes to Domestic Balance Sheets

This section summarizes changes to the corn and soybean balance sheets in more detail.

Table 2 displays the August WASDE corn balance sheet. For the 2025/26 marketing year, exports increased by 75 mb, resulting in total use also increasing 75 mb to 16,655 and ending stocks falling to 1,945 mb. Expected average farm price per bushel remains at $4.15.

For the 2026/27 marketing year, area planted increased 1.4 million acres to 96.7 million acres and area harvested increased 1.2 million acres to 88.6 million acres. Expected yield per acre dropped 2.3 bu/ac to 180.7 bu/ac. As previously mentioned, beginning stocks are down 75 mb to 1,945 mb and production rose 13 mb to 16,013 mb, resulting in total supply falling 62 mb to 17,893 mb. Exports rose 75 mb to 3,275 mb, leading total use to increase to 16,330 mb. Ending stocks dropped 137 mb to 1,653 mb while average farm price was raised 10 cents to $4.50 per bushel.

Table 2. August 2026 WASDE Corn Balance Sheet

Table 3 displays the August WASDE soybean balance sheet. For the 2025/26 marketing year, crush increased 5 mb to 2,655 mb, leading total use to rise to 4,287 mb and ending stocks to fall to 325 mb. Average farm price is unchanged at $10.40 per bushel.

For the 2026/27 marketing year, area planted and harvested both increased 1.4 million acres to 86.8 million acres and 85.8 million acres respectively. Expected yield dipped 0.3 bu/ac to 52.7 bu/ac. Beginning stocks fell 5 mb to 325 mb and production increased 44 mb to 4,519 mb, leading to total supply increasing by 39 mb to 4,869 mb. Crush and total domestic rose 30 mb to 2,780 mb and 2,890 mb respectively. Average farm price is unchanged at $11.40 per bushel.

Table 3. August 2026 WASDE Soybean Balance Sheet