Projecting the size of the U.S. corn crop depends on two components—harvested acreage and yield per acre.  The USDA Prospective Planting report released near the end of March provides a starting point in making this important projection.  The report showed that U.S. farmers intend to plant 90 million acres of corn during the 2024 planting season.  Combined with an estimate of the difference between planted and harvested acreage, this can be used to project harvested acreage.  Yield is then the only remaining component needed to project crop size.

 A simple trend analysis of US corn yields from 1980 to 2023 produces a model that indicates that US corn yields are increasing at 1.92 bushels per acre per year and projects a 2024 trendline yield of 181.3 bushels per acre. Trend yield from 2000-2023 is ...