Soybean Strategy - Sept. 20, 2017
2017 crop: Current prices may be the best you will see until after harvest. Use current prices to make sales that need to be made prior to middle/late November. Because we expect to see these prices again after harvest, we aren’t interested in making sales other than those that need to be made for cash flow or storage reasons.
FUNDAMENTALS: The USDA yield and production numbers were a little higher than expected, but were quickly discounted by the industry. There was a lot of skepticism about the record high “implied” pod weights in particular, especially given the poor finish across a number of areas in the Corn Belt.
Even though it’s still very early, the trade is starting to focus on South America. It’s extremely dry across much of Brazil, all but stopping early planting. Still, Brazil’s rainy season generally doesn’t start until mid-October.
Argentina is unusually wet in a huge area, but it’s more of a problem for wheat than soybeans at the moment. U.S. export demand appears to be ramping up.
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