Last week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report incorporated final acreage
and yield estimates from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. The result was a report
that was mildly bullish for corn and soybeans, as production estimates came in on the low side of
market expectations, particularly for beans.
For corn, harvested acreage was raised slightly (less than 100 thousand acres) from December
despite the fact that the estimate of planted acreage was revised down by about 380 thousand
acres. However, the rise in harvested acreage was more than offset by a drop in estimated yield.
The national average yield was estimated at 169.3 bushels per acre in December, but was revised
to 168.4 bushels per acre in the January WASDE. On net, considering the changes in harvested
acreage and average yield, estimated corn production in the January report worked out to 13.601
billion bushels—about 50 million bushels less than the prior month’s estimate.
Unfortunately, the decline in estimated corn production was more than matched by a drop in
estimated use, with food/seed/industrial use reduced by 10 million bushels and exports reduced
by 50 million bushels. The reduction in use estimates along with a 10 million bushel increase in
estimated imports resulted in a 17 million bushel increase in projected ending stocks. The corn
balance sheet is presented in Table 1.
To see the complete report please click here.