Introduction

The USDA released its updated WASDE report on June 11th, 2026. Wheat-by-class projections for the new 2026/27 crop year will not be published until the July WASDE report.

(New) 2026/27 Marketing Year

U.S. corn ending stocks increased by 3 million bushels (mb) to 1,960 mb and exceeded average trade expectations by 13 mb. U.S. soybean stocks remained constant at 310 mb and aligned with expectations. U.S. wheat ending stocks fell by 18 mb to 744 mb, while also underperforming industry expectations by 20 mb. U.S. wheat production estimates decreased by 18 mb to 1,543 mb and fell 12 mb under expectations. U.S. corn and soybean production and yield estimates outperformed industry expectations while remaining unchanged.

World corn ending stocks increased 3.68 million metric tons (MMT) to 281.22 MMT, exceeding industry expectations by 2.68 MMT. World soybean and wheat ending stocks both increased slightly to 124.88 MMT and 275.42 MMT respectively. Soybean ending stocks underperformed the average expectation by 0.37 MMT while wheat ending stocks exceeded expectations by 0.63 MMT.

2025/26 Marketing Year

U.S. corn ending stocks rose by 3 mb to 2,145 mb and exceeded average trade expectations by 8 mb. U.S. soybean and wheat ending stocks remained at 340 mb and 935 mb respectively, but slightly soybeans exceeded expectations while wheat underperformed.

South American Markets

There were no changes to the corn and soybean production estimates for the 2026/27 marketing.

For the 2025/26 marketing year, Brazil’s corn production estimate increased by 3.00 MMT to 138.00 MMT, exceeding expectations by over 2.00 MMT. Brazil’s soybean production estimate remains unchanged and aligns with expectations. Argentina’s corn and soybean production estimates both increased by 2.00 MMT to 61.00 MT and 50.00 MT respectively, while slightly exceeding average trade expectations.

Table 1 shows key report estimates for both U.S. and world production.

Table 1. June 2026 USDA vs. Market Expectations

Initial Market Reaction

Corn futures dropped by 3 cents within five minutes of the WASDE being released and continued to fall by as much as 6-7 cents through early afternoon. July futures fell to $4.11; September futures fell to $4.19; and December futures fell to $4.39.

Soybean futures initially fell by 6 cents, before fluctuating and partially recovering.
 July soybean futures initially dropped to $11.12 and reached a low of $11.08 before recovering to $11.15 by midafternoon. August soybean futures dipped to $11.18 initially and reached a low of $11.13 before recovering to $11.21. September soybean futures fell to $11.18, reached a low of $11.14, then improved to $11.21.

July soybean meal futures decreased by $1.5/ton to $302.1/ton.  August and September soybean meal futures initially fell by $1.3/ton to $302.4/ton and $302.1/ton respectively.

July soybean oil futures initially fell by 0.78 cents per pound to 74.88 cents per pound and continued to fall to 74.49 cents per pound. August soybean oil futures dropped by 0.68 cents per pound to 73.59 cents per pound initially, before continuing to fall to 73.18 cents per pound. September soybean oil futures dipped by 0.54 cents per pound to 72.40 cents per pound, and continued dropping to 71.92 cents per pound.

July, September, and December wheat futures all fell by 3 cents within half an hour of the WASDE releasing. July wheat futures dipped to $5.86; September wheat futures decreased to $5.97, and December wheat futures fell to $6.14.

Changes to Domestic Balance Sheets

This section summarizes changes to the corn and soybean balance sheets in more detail.

Table 2 displays the June 2026 WASDE corn balance sheet. For the 2025/26 marketing year, imports rose by 3 mb to 28 mb which led to total supply increasing to 18,600 mb. Food, seed, and industrial fell by 25 mb to 6,930 mb. Ethanol decreased by 25 mb to 5,575 mb, leading to total domestic also increasing by 25 mb to 13,130 mb. Exports fell by 5 mb to 3,325 mb. Ending stocks rose by 3 mb to 2,145 mb and expected average farm price per bushel remain unchanged at $4.15.

For the 2026/27 marketing year, beginning stocks increased by 3 mb to 2,145 mb, resulting in the same change in total supply (18,165 mb) and ending stocks (1,960 mb).

Table 2. June 2026 WASDE Corn Balance Sheet

Table 3 displays the June 2026 WASDE soybean balance sheet. For the 2025/26 marketing year, crush rose by 20 mb to 2,650 mb, which led to total domestic increasing to 2,762 mb and exports falling to 1,510 mb.

There were no changes in the 2026/27 marketing year.

Table 3. June 2026 WASDE Soybean Balance Sheet