Estimated 2017 ARC-CO Payments Using NASS Yield Data
The recently released NASS harvested yields can be used to estimate the 2017 Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) amounts planned for payment in the fall. Very few counties can expect to see payments this year. These estimates will likely vary from the final Farm Service Agency (FSA) yields used to calculate the actual payments this fall and should only be used as approximations. Another unknown variable in these estimations is the market year average (MYA) price; for this examples we have used a range of prices that can be changed by using the Crop/Price dropdown at the bottom of the map. According to the February WASDE report, the current midpoint prices are $3.30 for corn and $9.30 for soybeans.
The individual corn yields for four counties - Clarke, Decatur, Lucas and Wayne were not disclosed, therefore estimates for those counties have not been provided. For soybeans, the three counties not disclosed were Clarke, Decatur, and Wayne.
Additionally, the 6.8% sequestration adjustment that occurred the past two years was also applied to these estimates, but that value may differ. These ARC-CO payment projections will continue to be updated throughout the year as we gain more information.
Note that the estimated $/acre payments in the map below are based on 85% of base acres and have also assumed a 6.8% sequestration.Michelle Mensing is a Research Analyst with Decision Innovation Solutions (DIS). DIS is an Iowa-Based economic research firm which provides regular farm economics research and analysis to the Iowa Farm Bureau staff and members.
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