Cattle Herd

The USDA released its semi-annual estimate of July 1st cattle inventories on July 25th, 2025. Total cattle inventory continued to decline, falling by 1% from the last semi-annual estimate in 2023 to 94.2 million heads. Cows and heifers that have calved totaled 38.1 million heads, a 1% decrease from the previous report.

Beef cows make up 75% of the total cow inventory, despite decreasing by 1% to 28.7 million heads. The total 2025 calf crop is estimated to be 33.1 million heads, with 24.3 million being born in the first half of 2025. Beef heifer replacement inventories totaled 3.7 million heads, a 3% decrease from 2023.

Cattle on feed is down 1% to 13 million heads with1,000 head feedlot accounting for nearly 86%.

Figure 1. US July Cattle Inventories

Slaughter has decreased across the board through the first half of 2025. Total slaughter is down 5.23% to 14.5 million heads from 2024. The number of steers and heifers slaughtered have both declined by 4% to 7.2 million and 4.8 million respectively. Cows slaughter is down 13.79% from 2.9 million heads to 2.5 million heads.

Figure 2. Federally Inspected Cattle Slaughter (Jan-Jun)

Pests

The U.S. cattle industry is facing mounting pressure from two invasive pests—the New World Screwworm and the Asian Longhorned Tick. The New World Screwworm, a parasitic fly whose larvae feed on the living tissue of warm-blooded animals, has been detected in Mexico, prompting the USDA to halt all live cattle imports from Mexico since May. Previously the USDA suspended cattle imports from Mexico from late November 2024-early February 2025. This import ban disrupts a key supply of feeder cattle, tightening an already constrained market and contributing to lower feeder cattle inventory. Feeder cattle imports from Mexico fell by 65.6% to 210,055 in January-May from 2024 to 2025. The screwworm threat may also lead to reduced calf crop projections and increased biosecurity costs, further straining herd management.

Simultaneously, the Asian Longhorned Tick has spread into major cattle-producing states like Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. This tick transmits Theileria orientalis Ikeda, a disease that causes anemia, weight loss, and even death in cattle. With no approved treatment in the U.S., the disease is increasing mortality rates and reducing productivity, especially in the Midwest.

The effect of these pests could lead to elevated cattle and beef prices. The screwworm limits supply through trade restrictions and biosecurity challenges, while the tick increases production costs and reduces output. Together, they reinforce a tightening supply environment, making cattle more expensive to raise and beef more costly for consumers